All the difficulties experienced since the start of the pandemic in early 2020 have also shown us that with appropriate government assistance companies are able to sustain investments, production and employment more than was expected by the institutions and banks dealing with economic forecasts.
With the war in Ukraine, forecasts have become even more risky, as there are a number of fields where risks are medium- and even long-term. In addition to the question of how many ideas and how much energy to adapt to new developments companies still have, there are also risks that largely relate to the weak resilience of developing economies, which have much more difficulties than us to cope with supply problems and are even more exposed to a decline in the supply of food and fertilisers.
In the future, such expectations could reduce the current optimism about household consumption and also determine a standstill in their investment decisions. However, we must not forget that with the pandemic we have already witnessed unprecedented changes in all types of technologies. In reality, the pandemic shock has only increased the pace of these changes and the same can be said about the war in Ukraine. Of course, countries are agonising over how to avoid the negative effects of shocks on the economy, but households should rely on something else.
We will be the least dependent on unexpected events if we invest in knowledge. With information being widely available, the main focus will be on flexibility and general competences – others will also fight to maintain their position on the labour market and the difference will lie in the two mentioned characteristics of knowledge.
Author: Rasto Ovin